2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 17-9 (+18.40 Units)
Good Morning Sports Bettors:
Was Thursday night as sweet as can be or what? How’s that for a ‘bounce back’ card? Did you really think Wednesday night was beginning of a slump? Think again. Giving back those 4 units on Wednesday was peanuts compared to the 14 units we ripped right back from the books with Thursday’s 5-0 sweep. We are rapidly approaching that +150 unit mark. It seems like it was just 4 or 5 days ago when we hit the 100-unit mark. Oh yea...it was just 4 or 5 day's ago. As another reader named Carl stated in yesterday's comments, "The Visionary Owns".
Go find me another handicapper or scam artist service that advised UNC on money line (+200) and two baseball underdogs over +150 on Thursday, especially right before a college football weekend. There is not a single one anywhere in the world (even the honest ones). I’ll tell you what most guys like Brandon Lang and Jim Fiest do right before a big weekend of football when there is a baseball schedule; they all release big favorites of -200 (or more) all week in hopes of hitting as many as possible. This way they look like they are good handicappers and then they can bag as many suckers as they can for the weekend of football. They use their picks that you are buying as marketing tools. Most of these services (19 out of 20 at a minimum) will do nothing but run your bankroll into the ground and put you into the red. I have worked in this industry for over 7 years and I know how it operates. Trust me; the best handicappers do not sell picks for a living. I can also pretty much guarantee that there isn’t a single sports handicapping service in the world that has been more profitable then this completely free blog has been since it's launch. Stick with me all football season and I pledge that I will never advise you to play a game that I am not personally putting my hard-earned money on. I also pledge that I will do my very best to continue showing you consistent winners just like I have been for the past for months.
Anyway, on to Friday’s card of college football picks and baseball picks. I have been hearing a lot of reports that there is a lot of bitterness in the Washington State locker room. There are also reports of guys playing the blame game and it has been said that Cougars first year head coach Paul Wulff is losing control of his squad. Personally, I have not read these reports and I am not sure how 100% accurate this information is. However, it does come from a reliable and trustworthy source of mine; someone I call a friend and someone who would never intentionally make something like this up. This Cougar team is not a very good football team to begin with and this information can’t help things. Either way, this is good news for us because I was already planning on adding Baylor to my NCAA football picks for Saturday, even before the game got rescheduled. I have been liking the Bears in this matchup all week. Combine my early week play with the disarray among the WSU team, a missed day of practice, and the public's focus on the Kansas/USF matchup, we might have ourselves a sleeper of a big play tonight. Hurricane IKE might just be making The Visionary and his readers some sweet cash tonight. The Washington State / Baylor matchup can be seen on FSN in many markets tonight.
I also have a pick in the primetime, ESPN, top 25 showdown for this evening. I also have a pair of MLB picks for Friday, but these may be the last two until Monday or Tuesday. There is a big schedule of football this weekend which has been and will be my main focus. I am not sure that The Visionary will have the time to examine the bases with all the football handicapping that I will be doing over the next 48 hours. But, we do have an exciting weekend of football picks coming up as well as some premier college football games that should be fun to watch (with or without the betting). Anyway, here is the Friday night card. I will get back at you all tonight or early tomorrow morning with the Saturday’s college football picks and maybe another informative post.
Visionary's MLB & NCAA Football Picks For Friday:
(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)
Pick: Baylor Bears -2.5 (CFB)
Value: 4 Unit Play
Pick: South Florida Bulls -2.5 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play
Pick: New York Mets -1.5 -120 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play
Pick: Baltimore Orioles +140 (MLB)
Value: 1 Unit Play
Any Visionary readers residing in the Southeastern Texas & Gulf Coast areas where Hurricane Ike is heading, keep yourself and your families safe, and don't take any chances. Get out of town if they tell you to get out. Our thoughts are with you. Stay safe.
See you all tomorrow!
Can you double check that Mets run line? I don't see it anywhere near +120.
You are right. That was a typo and it was supposed to be -120 which was the overnight line. I would have noticed it when I was scoring the play. I have changed it on the blog. My pending wager says -119. I know it has gone up a little bit since then at most books. However, you can still get it at -125 at Sportbet. I still advise playing it at -130 or so as well.
Like how I gave you some props for the blog motto in today's post?
Love the props. I think we need to put it front and center at the top of the page after you pass +150 units.
Here's a question I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on. Given the busy weekend ahead, if you want to wait until next week to address it, that's fine by me. But I'll go ahead and ask now.
I always hear people saying that books set lines to encourage equal action on both sides, content to take the vig. In theory, yes, I would agree with that. It's the essence of why the line moves as action comes in. But in reality, is this truly the case?
Case in point: East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Tech was laying 9, maybe 9.5. I'm sure many people looked at that and couldn't believe Tech was laying "only" 9 points to some directional state school. People then proceed to hammer Tech. Not surprisingly, ECU not only covered, but they won outright. I was on ECU, and I'm sure many others were, too. I've seen that situation play out too many times to get suckered again. But a lot of players probably got crushed chasing that "free money" line.
This weekend, I see it again in the NFL. My Redskins, who looked absolutely atrocious against the Giants, were installed as a 1.5 point favorite at home against the high-octane Saints. Not surprisingly, people have already hammered it the other way to where it's the Saints laying 1.0 in some cases (it's a pick in most places). As a Skins fan who thinks this team is in for a very long year, I have a really hard time not laying it with the Saints. However, with a gun to my head, based on that opening line, I'd have to take the Skins. Am I crazy?
The linemakers are obviously very good at what they do, but I'm not convinced they don't set traps each week for the public to walk right into. Is this the case, or are these cases a matter of flawed perception by the public?
I'll hang up and listen. Thanks.
Another Q & A post titled "Is Vegas Setting 'Traps' In The Spreads?" has been made in response to your question. Hope this answers your question and I don't sound too much like a blow hard. LOL.
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