The Visionry's 'Bounce-Back' Sunday NFL Picks

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 58-44 (+70.90 Units / 57%)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units / 68%)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 18-15 (+1.30 Units / 55%)

Good (Or Maybe Not So Good) Morning:

Yes indeed, Saturday was an absolute nightmare that just wouldn't end. It was by far the worst day that The Visionary has had since the very beginning of this blog and in a long long time. I am completely humbled right now and downright embarrassed after Saturday. I knew that one of those horrible days eventually would come, but for crying out loud UCLA???!!! You honestly have to be kidding me! I am going to have to rededicate myself with the college football and get back to some basics. I know that I am still in the very much in the black and so are my readers that have been following for a while now, but Saturday is still extremely frustrating for many reasons. I am more frustrated then all of you right now, honestly. A ridiculous loss like Saturday really makes me think that I should be making serious changes to the way I am doing my handicapping. The truth is that I probably shouldn't be making any changes at all. It's all just very discouraging and frustrating.

This is the really ugly side about running a blog like this and this is what I have always despised when working for handicapping services. It really stinks that I gave back XX units and that I am losing my own money to the books (or giving it back to them). However, I really feel horribly (maybe even worse) for my new (or first-time) readers that have just started playing with me and may have already been in a hole. To this category of player: I just hope that you will give me another opportunity to show where the above records are coming from. I am much better then what I showed you with Saturday's college football picks. It may be hard for you to believe, but it's the truth. You can see this by looking at the picks over the past 3 months. Everyone, I am really sorry for the terrible day that I put you through and I hope that most of you are long time readers that already had a big bankroll built up with me. As hard as it may be, it's time for me to put Saturday behind me.

Alright, enough of my whining. Let's get to the NFL picks. No time for football handicapping tips for today. We have a few plays for Sunday's NFL action, where the Visionary hopes to bounce back very strong. Here they are...

The Visionary's Sunday NFL Football Picks:

Pick: New York Jets -1 (NFL)
Value: 5 Unit Play

Pick: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland Over 44 (NFL)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: Denver Broncos -1 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Miami Dolphins +6.5 (NFL)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 (NFL)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

To the asshole who was flooding my comments section last night: You know who you are. Yea you, the lurkers who had nothing to say over the past three months while I was winning and suddenly had no problem trashing and flooding my blog when I had bad day, it's time to grow up and have at least some class. Do you really not have anything better to do? I am not happy about losing my money either, but I don't trash your property because of it. Me having a bad day doesn't give you the right to flood my comments section. Nobody is forcing you to do anything. If you don't follow my picks, nothing will happen to you. I really hope that I don't have to delete another flood of comments the next time I have a bad day. I may just have to turn the comments moderation on if t happens again.

Good Luck Today!

-The Visionary

Visionary's College Football Picks For Saturday!

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 58-44 (+70.90 Units / 57%)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units / 68%)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 18-10 (+20.00 Units / 64%)

Hello My College Football Betting Friends:

Happy college football Saturday everyone! I spent a lot of time handicapping the college football schedule in the past 24 hours, which is the reason for the later-then-usual post today. I hope everyone got on Friday night's 4-unit Baylor play as I couldn't have called that one any better last night. Washington State is a complete mess and I definitely owe the person who gave me that vital information a big 'Thank You'. Even though I posted South Florida at -2.5 last night, most people were not able to get this line. I am not going to take credit for this 2-unit win because I think most of my readers were not able to get this line. I actually got the line at 3.5 and bought a point, which is the reason I posted 2.5. But, I forgot to tell people how I got that line and I apologize for that. So, Friday's night's college football picks record was 1-1 (+1.8 units) and will be recorded as such.

As for Saturday, I am going to keep the post short as I plan to watch all of these games today and handicap the NFL schedule for tomorrow at the same time. Honestly, I barely looked at the NFL board all week, and this is not how I usually do things. I also didn't get very much sleep at all last night as I was in the college football handicapping zone. I also spent some time last night posting on the blog, answering some reader comments. You can view these posts below. I hope that they help some people become better handicappers. Due to the fact that I didn't get a lot of sleep, I am going to take a short nap before the college football action, and then immediately start looking over Sunday's NFL board when I get up to watch the games. A lot of the Saturday college football picks for today seem to be plays that are against the public action, which I think is a good thing. This also means that they may also be unpopular with my readers. However, I feel extremely confident in this card, especially in the two big plays. I really hope to keep this outstanding hot streak that we have been on alive and I hope that everyone gets on board for today. Anyway, here are The Visionary's college football picks for Saturday. I will be back tomorrow with my red hot NFL picks which are currently hitting a 68%, that's right, 68% winning clip!

Visionary's Big Saturday Card of NCAA Football Picks:

Pick: UCLA Bruins +8 (CFB)
Value: 5 Unit Play

Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes +12.5 (CFB)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +2 (CFB)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Oregon Ducks -7.5 (CFB)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Virginia Cavaliers +10.5 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

Good luck today everyone and enjoy the college football action....

See you all tomorrow!

-The Visionary

Q & A: "Is Vegas Setting 'Traps' In The Spreads?"

Q: Carl Asks....

Here's a question I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on. Given the busy weekend ahead, if you want to wait until next week to address it, that's fine by me. But I'll go ahead and ask now...

...The linemakers are obviously very good at what they do, but I'm not convinced they don't set traps each week for the public to walk right into. Is this the case, or are these cases a matter of flawed perception by the public?

A: Hey Carl....

You asked another question where I could probably hammer out another 1000-word response to. You also asked this while I was going over the Oregon @ Purdue matchup for Saturday. So, if we lose that game tomorrow, you all know who to blame (I am only kidding). I will try to give you a quick answer and keep it short. The oddsmakers aren't setting "traps" in that they are trying to "trick" you or force the public to one side or because they know the outcome. They are absolutely trying to get 50/50 in total money on each side without question.

Sure, you will see a lot of the public bettors that are playing Virginia Tech in the Virginia Tech/ECU matchup that you gave as an example. But, you took ECU (the other side) and you aren't the only one. Just because there are consensus reports out there that say 70/30 one way or a few forums on the web have mostly Virginia Tech players, doesn't mean that Vegas is getting 70/30 in action for that game. Those consensus reports do not account for sharp action as well as big money action, nor does it account for the ECU bettors waiting for the public to move the line. Also, 10 guys on the web could be playing Virginia Tech for $100 a piece, and all it would take to keep the line from moving would be one player heading into that same book and dropping a dime on the ECU.

If something looks like a "trap" and the line seems off, then you are most likely missing something and you should be digging for the information that you are missing. That could be a very good start in finding the games that you wish to research. I still also call some spreads "traps", but not for the reason that the oddsmakers are trying to "trick" you into betting one side. The reason lines can be considered "traps" is because the public perception is incorrect, where the oddsmakers are posting the line based on what they think the public will split on. Just because the public will split the action on that game, doesn't mean that the spread is right and the games final score will end with that particular spread.

I could go on and on about this sports betting related topic. Remember, the oddsmakers are not psychic and do not have influence over the games...well, unless Tim Donaghy is officiating the game. But in all seriousness, Vegas has no reason or any need whatsoever to influence the outcome. Remember one more thing; The house always has more money then you and will always be able to cover your action (unless you are Warren Buffett). Therefore, if the oddsmakers mess up on a game and they take a hit, they will be able to cover your action until they screw up on a line and it ends up benefiting them. So, if you win $100 one day, the house don't need to "trick" you in order to get it back. The odds are just in their favor that they will eventually see that money again.

It may seem like the oddsmakers are playing games with you because it seems that they are so dead on with the spread in relation the actual spread of a game's final score. The reason for this, is because they post so many lines, that eventually a few of the final scores are going to finish near or around the set spread for the game. Their posted spreads have nothing to do with the final scores. They are simply posting a line where they will get an equal amount of action on each side. For that very reason, the betting public controls where the lines will be set as much as the oddsmakers. This is the same exact reason that The Visionary can beat the books by playing with patience, using disciplined money management, and making well informed betting decisions.

I will close this discussion with one final thought before I go. I really could go on and on for hours on this topic, but I think you were just looking for my opinion on this. However, I don't consider this really an opinion based article because it actually contains facts, and you are thinking in terms of a conspiracy. And, if there is a conspiracy, it's not in Vegas. Vegas is actually the least corrupt place in the world as far as gambling goes. Vegas casinos are well regulated and there are strict laws protecting you and your rights as a customer. The corruption happens outside Vegas, in the mob controlled, barstool bookies. These are the same places where the Tim Donaghys of the world pop out of. Besides, the revenue it can generate to help solve a lot of the country's problems, this is another legitamate reason why online gambling should be legalized and regulated in the United States; It will also prevent corruption and crime instead of encouraging it.

-The Visionary

5-0 (+14 unit) Thursday Night Sweep! Visionary's Friday MLB Picks & NCAA Football Picks!

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 58-44 (+70.90 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 17-9 (+18.40 Units)

Good Morning Sports Bettors:

Was Thursday night as sweet as can be or what? How’s that for a ‘bounce back’ card? Did you really think Wednesday night was beginning of a slump? Think again. Giving back those 4 units on Wednesday was peanuts compared to the 14 units we ripped right back from the books with Thursday’s 5-0 sweep. We are rapidly approaching that +150 unit mark. It seems like it was just 4 or 5 days ago when we hit the 100-unit mark. Oh yea...it was just 4 or 5 day's ago. As another reader named Carl stated in yesterday's comments, "The Visionary Owns".

Go find me another handicapper or scam artist service that advised UNC on money line (+200) and two baseball underdogs over +150 on Thursday, especially right before a college football weekend. There is not a single one anywhere in the world (even the honest ones). I’ll tell you what most guys like Brandon Lang and Jim Fiest do right before a big weekend of football when there is a baseball schedule; they all release big favorites of -200 (or more) all week in hopes of hitting as many as possible. This way they look like they are good handicappers and then they can bag as many suckers as they can for the weekend of football. They use their picks that you are buying as marketing tools. Most of these services (19 out of 20 at a minimum) will do nothing but run your bankroll into the ground and put you into the red. I have worked in this industry for over 7 years and I know how it operates. Trust me; the best handicappers do not sell picks for a living. I can also pretty much guarantee that there isn’t a single sports handicapping service in the world that has been more profitable then this completely free blog has been since it's launch. Stick with me all football season and I pledge that I will never advise you to play a game that I am not personally putting my hard-earned money on. I also pledge that I will do my very best to continue showing you consistent winners just like I have been for the past for months.

Anyway, on to Friday’s card of college football picks and baseball picks. I have been hearing a lot of reports that there is a lot of bitterness in the Washington State locker room. There are also reports of guys playing the blame game and it has been said that Cougars first year head coach Paul Wulff is losing control of his squad. Personally, I have not read these reports and I am not sure how 100% accurate this information is. However, it does come from a reliable and trustworthy source of mine; someone I call a friend and someone who would never intentionally make something like this up. This Cougar team is not a very good football team to begin with and this information can’t help things. Either way, this is good news for us because I was already planning on adding Baylor to my NCAA football picks for Saturday, even before the game got rescheduled. I have been liking the Bears in this matchup all week. Combine my early week play with the disarray among the WSU team, a missed day of practice, and the public's focus on the Kansas/USF matchup, we might have ourselves a sleeper of a big play tonight. Hurricane IKE might just be making The Visionary and his readers some sweet cash tonight. The Washington State / Baylor matchup can be seen on FSN in many markets tonight.

I also have a pick in the primetime, ESPN, top 25 showdown for this evening. I also have a pair of MLB picks for Friday, but these may be the last two until Monday or Tuesday. There is a big schedule of football this weekend which has been and will be my main focus. I am not sure that The Visionary will have the time to examine the bases with all the football handicapping that I will be doing over the next 48 hours. But, we do have an exciting weekend of football picks coming up as well as some premier college football games that should be fun to watch (with or without the betting). Anyway, here is the Friday night card. I will get back at you all tonight or early tomorrow morning with the Saturday’s college football picks and maybe another informative post.

Visionary's MLB & NCAA Football Picks For Friday:

Pick: Baylor Bears -2.5 (CFB)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: South Florida Bulls -2.5 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 -120 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Baltimore Orioles +140 (MLB)
Value: 1 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

Any Visionary readers residing in the Southeastern Texas & Gulf Coast areas where Hurricane Ike is heading, keep yourself and your families safe, and don't take any chances. Get out of town if they tell you to get out. Our thoughts are with you. Stay safe.

See you all tomorrow!

-The Visionary

The Visionary's Major League Baseball & College Football Picks For Thursday Night

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 56-44 (+63.90 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 14-9 (+11.40 Units)

Good Morning Sports Bettors:

Wednesday was not very pretty as we had our first losing day in almost a week. That's what I get for laying that kind of ridiculous chalk on an average NL baseball team in Philadelphia. I believe last Friday was the last time we gave the books back some of our cash. I spent the entire day going over the college football matchup for Thursday night and examining the baseball board in effort to make a quick 180. I know that in the past, we would usually fire right back with a big winner after a losing night and we would usually come back strong. There is nothing I would love more then to give you all a strong bounce-back card for Thursday filled with 4 and 5 unit plays. But, I just can't in good conscience release any real big plays tonight. I will never tell you to bet a game that I am not personally betting myself. I do, however, have a 3-unit play in the North Carolina @ Rutgers matchup, but I can't advise making any big moves on this game. I do believe the public is moving the line the wrong way, but I haven't seen enough of UNC (this year or last year). I am under the impression that Rutgers is more of a mistake prone team then North Carolina. I see the Tar Heels winning the crucial turnover battle tonight. Anyway, we have two average to small plays in the bases. I am also playing the total in tonight's college football matchup along with a small moneyline play. I feel fairly good about this card and it has the potential to get us back to our winning ways. By the way, I am extremely excited about this weekend's NFL and NCAA football action as I see some serious line mistakes that I think we could take advantage of. Here is are Thursday MLB and NCAA football picks. I'll see you all tomorrow...

Visionary's Free Sports Picks For Thursday:

Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels +6 (CFB)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: North Carolina @ Rutgers Over 46.5 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +180 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 +170 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels +200 (MLB)
Value: 1 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

See you all tomorrow!

-The Visionary

Q & A: "Money Management in Sports Betting"

Q: Stephen Asks....

This may be a stupid question but I wanted to check with you and make sure I understand how to bet "units." A unit is basically your minimum bet, correct? For example, my bankroll isn't very large and my math is spotty at best so to keep things simple I am considering one unit to be $10. So when you suggest a bet for two units I take that line for $20. A 5 unit bet means I put down $50. Is this the right way of going about it?

A: Hello Again Stephen....

I appreciate the question as well as your participation and interest in this sports handicapping blog. This is far from a stupid question and I am glad that you asked. Someone who doesn't ask questions like this because he/she thinks it's a stupid question may end up losing a bundle of money because they didn't ask. So, I am glad you did and I hope this helps someone other then just yourself. I will be glad to answer this is some detail for you today as I have a little free time on my hands at the moment.

As you are a smaller player, for the most part you have the right idea, Steve. Everyone has their own system of money management and it only makes sense that way. Why wouldn't they. Some people are comfortable betting $500 a game and some people are more comfortable only betting $5 a game. I am not here to judge anyone on their wager amounts, nor do I care how much money my readers make at their jobs. I always wish all my readers success in whatever they pursue and I truly hope that everyone here is content and happy in their own professions. But, I can tell you this; The key to money management in sports betting is consistency. One day, I will completely discuss my own personal money management system on this blog and will go into vigorous detail (Yes, I really can go into a more detail). But, that is for another time and for now, I will offer some quick money management advice.

In my opinion, and generally speaking, an individual's 'unit play' should be anywhere from .05% to a maximum of 3% of their bankroll that the player has set aside for sports betting purposes. Again, I am not going to go into how much of your personal income you should set aside for gambling. I am going to assume that everyone reading this blog is somewhat responsible. I am also going to assume that everyone reading this has enough judgement to separate money that is intended for their family and the necessities of life, with money that is used for sports betting. If this is a problem for you and you are unable to achieve this, then this article really will not help you and you will need to seek some professional advice for problem gambling.

As I was saying, anywhere from .05% to 3% (max) of the player's bankroll is a good start in deciding your 'unit bet'. I personally would advise a player's 'unit bet' to be 1.5% of their betting bankroll. This is the percentage that I use and I think it's about right. With a 1.5% 'per unit' system, if you have a total of $1,000 set aside as your sports betting bankroll, each '1-unit bet' would be a $15 bet, making a 5-unit play a $75 bet. Those are 'to win' amounts when betting spreads (if you want to get really specific). This is a sound system of money management in my opinion. Some players may prefer to be more risky and make their units a little bit larger, say 2% or 3%.

Going any higher then 2% or 3% 'per unit' is foolish in my opinion. Here is why going as high as 5% of your bankroll for a 1-unit play is very unwise. If you are using 5% 'per unit' player, then you would be risking 25% of your roll on one game if you are betting a 5-unit play. For example; if a player has a $500 bankroll, then his unit play (at 5%) would be $25, and a 5-unit play would be $125. He would be risking 25% of his entire bankroll on one game. I personally wouldn't suggest risking anything over 10% to 15% of your bankroll on one game, ever. 10% i definitely my cap, but again some people set their limits higher.

On the other hand, the same ($500 bankroll) player, using my 1.5% per unit (or $7.50 per unit) system, would be risking $37.50 (or 7.5% of his bankroll) on a 5-unit play, which is more reasonable. Of course it doesn't have to be exact. A player with a $500 bankroll could play $10 units, which is also reasonable. You decide for yourself.

So, make your decision on how much you want to value your bets. But, whatever you decide, be consistent and do not (I repeat, do not) start changing your wager values, especially not in the middle of the season or because you are having a good week. I really wouldn't suggest changing it at all, unless you get a raise at your job; or your business has gotten bigger; or you are simply making more money and have more 'recreational' (not the word I am looking for) income to use for sports betting purposes. Again, consistency is the key to sports betting money management. Be consistent when you decide how much you are going to value your bets.

Again, if you are a small player and your average bet would be $20, then yes. a $10 'per unit' amount sounds reasonable. If you're a medium level player, perhaps $50 units may be more your style. That all depends on how much money you make and how much you have set aside for betting. But, one thing is for certain, this blog is for all players; from the $10 (per unit) player, to the dime player ($250 to $1000 per unit) player. However much you decide to wager on a particular game or wet aside for sports betting, there is absolutely no substitute for consistent money management, nor is there an alternative to sound advice and making informed and educated bets. What's the word of the day? CONSISTENCY.

I also wouldn't mind hearing about how some of my readers manage their sports betting bankrolls (without getting into actual dollar amounts). If you have any money management tips or other general advice related to money management, be sure to share in the comments section.

-The Visionary

The Visionary's Free Major League Baseball Picks For Wednesday.

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 55-42 (+67.90 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 14-9 (+11.40 Units)

Good Afternoon Players:

Again, I apologize for the late post again today. I had another late night last night and I also needed a few hours to myself. I am going to keep this short today as I have a pretty busy day and I also need to set aside some time to go over tomorrow's college football matchup. We swept the board last night in the bases and tacked on another 7 units on to the baseball bankroll. I think Tuesday's sweep speaks for itself.

Wednesday's baseball card is not a very big one. To tell you the truth, I really wasn't too fond of the board again tonight. So, we have two small plays on two home underdogs and a 3-unit play that I really like, although I am not really excited about laying this much chalk. Do not play this game over what I advise because it's a baseball favorite and looks like a sure winner (there is no such thing). Too many people load up on baseball favorite because they think they are betting on a sure thing. But, I don't want my readers dumping their rolls on a big baseball favorite today. Here are Wednesday's baseball picks...

Reminder: Some of the plays below are for afternoon baseball games.

Visionary's Baseball Picks For Wednesday:

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -150 (MLB)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: San Francisco Giants +150 (MLB)
Value: 1 Unit Play

Pick: San Diego Padres +145 (MLB)
Value: 1 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

See you all tomorrow!

-The Visionary

Winning Weekend of Football Picks! The Visionary's Major League Baseball Picks For Tuesday Evening!

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 52-42 (+60.70 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 25-12 (+38.20 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 14-9 (+11.40 Units)

Good Afternoon Sports Bettors:

Sorry for the late post today as I was up real late watching both the NFL games. It was almost 1:00AM (EST) when our two-unit play on the over in the Broncos/Raiders finally came in to make Monday's card another profitable one. Aaron Rodgers was spectacular last night and this kid really deserves a lot of credit. I said it back in July....

"I really do believe this guy will be a special Quarterback when given the opportunity to show the Packers what he can do..."
-The Visionary (July 14, 2008)

I still do not believe that the problem with the Raiders is a personnel issue. I am not really sold on the coaching the Oakland. Mike Ditka was very critical of the Raiders play-calling last night and I was in complete agreement with him the entire night. That team has the talent to be successful, especially in that division. There is a serious lack of leadership there and it starts at the very top.

Another reason for the late post is that I was having a little bit of a difficult time handicapping the baseball board today. We are getting to that point where a large percentage of the teams aren't playing for anything (other then individual achievements). There is also lot of big home favorites today where the lines are just absurd. Although most of the plays that I like today are favorites, to lay a lot of this chalk would be completely irresponsible. I am not going to do that. On that note, lets take it easy tonight players. We had a pretty nice weekend of football. No reason to get crazy with the bases when 50% of the games on the schedule are completely meaningless. So, here are The Visionary's baseball picks for Tuesday.

Visionary's Baseball Picks For Tuesday Night:

Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 +100 (MLB)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +110 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Atlanta Braves -110 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

Good Luck Everyone!

-The Visionary

The Visionary's Top Monday Night Football Picks (After Going 4-1 +9.7 Units On Sunday)

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 52-42 (+60.70 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 23-11 (+34.20 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 14-9 (+11.40 Units)

Hello My Sports Gambling Buddies:

Las Vegas books, local bookies, and online sportsbooks all got a little bit richer this Sunday....but so did The Visionary readers. Sunday was outstanding as it ended up making the weekend a very profitable one. The Visionary just continues to destroy the books. How did all the non-visionary following, chalk eating, suckers out there do? I will tell you how they did. They loaded up on road favorites like Cincinnati, Jacksonville and double-digit favorites like Kansas City and Indianapolis. I wonder if all those suckers enjoyed getting their asses handed to them with the Brandon Lang types? At least those guys can say "I lost my money playing picks from the 'Two for the Money' guy." What a piece of trash that guy is.

Stick with The Visionary and make some money this year. By the way, Sunday puts us over the 100 unit mark in just three months. That means the average $20 to $100 player would have made over $2,000 and average $50 to $250 player would have made over $5,000 off this blog in just three months of posting winners. (average dime player = $50,000 min profit). No handicapper or any Vegas sharp can do what I have been doing. I am not promising to stay this hot all of the time. However, if you aren't convinced that I know what I'm doing at this point, I don't know what will convince you and your probably just asking for some rip-off sports handicapping service to steal your money on a regular basis.

How halarious was that Atlanta game yesterday? I knew they would run through the pathetic Detroit defense, but 300 total yards on the ground, and almost two backs with 100-yard games. Enough is enough. I really enjoyed watching that game. What was I talking about yesterday? Oh yea, over-hyped teams. Here's one; The Cleveland Browns. Was that defense one of the worst defenses that you saw on Sunday or what? I think I saw about five teams with 5-11 (or worse) records who played much better defense then Cleveland did yesterday. Dallas looked like they were scrimmaging their practice squad. I think the last warm-up game on HBO's 'Hard Knocks' was closer then Sunday's game in Cleveland. The Browns a Superbowl contender? Please don't make me laugh. You have to be able to compete against the AFC's best to go to the Superbowl. Pittsburgh is going to chew that team up and spit them out twice this year (can you say 14 pt. favorite?). Romeo Crennel should start packing his bags now as Cleveland is the same ol' sorry ass Browns.

On the other hand, here are some teams that may have surprised some people yesterday and are worth mentioning; 1. Philadelphia Eagles (38-3) over St. Louis Rams, 2. Buffalo Bills (34-10) over (the over-hyped) Seattle Seahawks, 3. Carolina Panthers (26-24) 0ver San Diego Chargers, and the Chicago Bears (29-13) over Indianapolis Colts.

Obviously the Bills didn't surprise us and I honestly considered adding Philly (for 2 units) to the card on Sunday. I didn't want to over do things as we already had 16 units on the line. Average football bettors hate the first week of the NFL season. The Visionary loves it. Nothing like home dogs and double-digit dogs cashing in. Repeating what I said yesterday, Don't Buy Into NFL Media Pre-Season OR In-Season Hype... I am not going to give any tips or betting advice because yesterday's advice is worth repeating. If you haven't read yesterday's advice, read it right now before betting on Monday's NFL Picks and remember it. I will post my next blub of NFL betting advice with next Sunday's card. Here are the NFL picks for the Monday Night Football games....

Monday Night Football Week One NFL Picks:

Pick: Green Bay Packers (ML) -125 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Denver @ Oakland Over 41 (NFL)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Oakland Raiders (ML) +130 (NFL)
Value: 1 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

Go cash these winners in....I need a nap....

-The Visionary

The Visionary's Sunday NFL Picks For Week 1 & Some General Football Betting Advice

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 52-42 (+60.70 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 19-10 (+24.50 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 14-9 (+11.40 Units)

My Football Betting Friends:

I am getting right to the Sunday post since our Saturday card is complete and The Visionary is very excited for tomorrow. Saturday was mildly successful as we got back the 4.5 units that we dropped on Friday. The Visionary is rather disappointed with himself. I need to practice what I preach a little more and stop forcing some plays. I did you all a disservice by throwing that No. Illinois/W. Michigan total play on the Saturday card. I forced the play because I wanted to add a late game and that was honestly the best that I could come up with. I should have passed on that one completely. I am more upset about that one then I am about the Syracuse loss. I just completely misread the Syracuse game. On a positive note, the East Carolina & Washington plays played out exactly as I expected them too and Georgia Tech took care of Bizz-Nass. Overall, not my best work tonight. Again, better days are ahead. How about we start those better days on Sunday?

The NFL is my favorite sport watch by far and I spent the entire day drawing up my NFL Picks. Before getting to Sunday's plays, I want to offer up some basic NFL handicapping advice that everyone should read if they want to become a more successful football bettor. As I have said before, I am not just looking to help you win with my work. My goal is also to help my readers become more successful handicappers themselves. I want my readers to be that small majority of sports bettors who play smart. So, I will try to post some general handicapping tips as much as I can during NFL season. Here is the my NFL football betting advice for week 1:

Do Not Buy Into The NFL Pre & In-Season Media Hype!....Just because you hear guys on the radio tell you that a team stinks or another team is great, doesn't mean it's completely true and it especially doesn't mean that they will cover the spread every week. If all you did was was watch Sportscenter and listen to talk radio when determining your football picks, you'd get the false impression that the top 5 or 6 teams in the NFL are far an away better then the rest of the league, and you would be betting nothing but the Colts and Patriots every week (regardless of the spread). Sports radio and sports TV shows love to over-hype teams. The reason that they do this is because HYPE SELLS. Nothing creates buzz and produces ratings like creating hype. Therefore, you will hear ESPN, FOX Sports, etc. constantly telling you how great a certain few teams are. They are doing their job.

Not only is the network hyping up the better teams and creating buzz, but they are also angering the fans of the other teams. How many times have you heard a fan say, "My team doesn't get enough credit" ..or.. "My team is under-rated" ..or.. "Why doesn't ESPN talk about my team at all?"

This only makes fans want to watch the games more. The major media conglomerates in this country know exactly what they are doing. Don't buy into it. Do your own handicapping, watch the games, and make those determinations for yourself. To be successful as a handicapper, you should be looking for teams that are flying under the radar and digging for some of these quiet but talented teams that have the potential to win or cover vs. some of the better teams in the league. You should know just as much about the 3-12 teams as the 12-3 teams. Do not let television talking heads and ESPN do your handicapping work for you. That's not handicapping; That's sucker betting.

Now that I filled your head with some useful advice, I can get to Sunday's NFL picks for week 1. The first thing that I noticed when looking at the Sunday schedule was the amount of home dogs on the board. I believe there were 5 of them for Sunday, and a 6th on Monday. You'll be able to count on one hand the number of weeks this season where there are this many home dogs. This is also my type of board. I am a big advocate of playing home dogs when betting on NFL football. But, after looking over the games and some of the injury reports, I could only get excited about two of them. You will also notice that I am attempting to achieve my objective in the betting advice that I provided by playing teams that appear to be flying under the radar. I also have a total play that I really like for Sunday evening's Bears/Colts matchup. Here are Sunday's four NFL picks for week 1...

The Visionary's Week 1 NFL Football Picks:

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3 (NFL)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: Buffalo Bills -1 (NFL)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +2.5 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Chicago @ Indianapolis Under 44 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

Good Luck!

-The Visionary