Sunday, September 7, 2008

The Visionary's Sunday NFL Picks For Week 1 & Some General Football Betting Advice

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 52-42 (+60.70 Units)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 19-10 (+24.50 Units)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 14-9 (+11.40 Units)

My Football Betting Friends:

I am getting right to the Sunday post since our Saturday card is complete and The Visionary is very excited for tomorrow. Saturday was mildly successful as we got back the 4.5 units that we dropped on Friday. The Visionary is rather disappointed with himself. I need to practice what I preach a little more and stop forcing some plays. I did you all a disservice by throwing that No. Illinois/W. Michigan total play on the Saturday card. I forced the play because I wanted to add a late game and that was honestly the best that I could come up with. I should have passed on that one completely. I am more upset about that one then I am about the Syracuse loss. I just completely misread the Syracuse game. On a positive note, the East Carolina & Washington plays played out exactly as I expected them too and Georgia Tech took care of Bizz-Nass. Overall, not my best work tonight. Again, better days are ahead. How about we start those better days on Sunday?

The NFL is my favorite sport watch by far and I spent the entire day drawing up my NFL Picks. Before getting to Sunday's plays, I want to offer up some basic NFL handicapping advice that everyone should read if they want to become a more successful football bettor. As I have said before, I am not just looking to help you win with my work. My goal is also to help my readers become more successful handicappers themselves. I want my readers to be that small majority of sports bettors who play smart. So, I will try to post some general handicapping tips as much as I can during NFL season. Here is the my NFL football betting advice for week 1:

Do Not Buy Into The NFL Pre & In-Season Media Hype!....Just because you hear guys on the radio tell you that a team stinks or another team is great, doesn't mean it's completely true and it especially doesn't mean that they will cover the spread every week. If all you did was was watch Sportscenter and listen to talk radio when determining your football picks, you'd get the false impression that the top 5 or 6 teams in the NFL are far an away better then the rest of the league, and you would be betting nothing but the Colts and Patriots every week (regardless of the spread). Sports radio and sports TV shows love to over-hype teams. The reason that they do this is because HYPE SELLS. Nothing creates buzz and produces ratings like creating hype. Therefore, you will hear ESPN, FOX Sports, etc. constantly telling you how great a certain few teams are. They are doing their job.

Not only is the network hyping up the better teams and creating buzz, but they are also angering the fans of the other teams. How many times have you heard a fan say, "My team doesn't get enough credit" ..or.. "My team is under-rated" ..or.. "Why doesn't ESPN talk about my team at all?"

This only makes fans want to watch the games more. The major media conglomerates in this country know exactly what they are doing. Don't buy into it. Do your own handicapping, watch the games, and make those determinations for yourself. To be successful as a handicapper, you should be looking for teams that are flying under the radar and digging for some of these quiet but talented teams that have the potential to win or cover vs. some of the better teams in the league. You should know just as much about the 3-12 teams as the 12-3 teams. Do not let television talking heads and ESPN do your handicapping work for you. That's not handicapping; That's sucker betting.

Now that I filled your head with some useful advice, I can get to Sunday's NFL picks for week 1. The first thing that I noticed when looking at the Sunday schedule was the amount of home dogs on the board. I believe there were 5 of them for Sunday, and a 6th on Monday. You'll be able to count on one hand the number of weeks this season where there are this many home dogs. This is also my type of board. I am a big advocate of playing home dogs when betting on NFL football. But, after looking over the games and some of the injury reports, I could only get excited about two of them. You will also notice that I am attempting to achieve my objective in the betting advice that I provided by playing teams that appear to be flying under the radar. I also have a total play that I really like for Sunday evening's Bears/Colts matchup. Here are Sunday's four NFL picks for week 1...

The Visionary's Week 1 NFL Football Picks:

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3 (NFL)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: Buffalo Bills -1 (NFL)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +2.5 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Chicago @ Indianapolis Under 44 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(The Visionary's free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

Good Luck!

-The Visionary

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