Monday, July 14, 2008

All-Star Game Odds: Where is the value?

Hey guys,

After giving you a winner with Justin Morneau in the Home Run Derby, I would liketo move on to some discussion and picks for the 2008 All-Star game. Here are the current odds (as of Monday morning) @ BetUS Sportsbook (100% bonus if you click here) for Tuesday Night's Major League Baseball All-Star Game:

American League -145
National League +125

Over 10 (-110)
Under 10 (-110)

As you may or may not know, the American League is 10-0-1 in the last 11 All-Star Games and the general consensus amongst sports fans and sports bettors is that the American League is the dominant league and should be able to handle the NL in the All-Star Game on Tuesday night in the Bronx.

Based on public perception and how the odds-makers are instructed to post their Major League Baseball lines, they got it right. In fact based on the line movement, they should have set the number higher as -145 is up from where it opened. The Visionary believes that the public is way off here and watching the opening line move from AL -130 to -145 only made him wonder if the public looks for value at all when betting Major League Baseball. He believes that there is a lot of value in laying a small amount of doincassles on the National League.

The American League maybe the dominant league in Major League Baseball as a whole, but if you are just looking at just the top 5% of players in each league, it's a different story and the talent pool is fairly even. If you want to try and argue that it's not close to even and if you are someone who thinks that the AL's top players are a whole lot better then the NL's top players, he would ask that you simply look and compare the individual stats for the top 5 hitters in baseball today.

Batting Average Leaders:
1. Ian Kinsler .337 vs. Chipper Jones .376 = Winner NL
2. Justin Morneau .323 vs. Albert Pujols .350 = Winner NL
3. Joe Mauer .322 vs. Lance Berkman .347 = Winner NL
4. Johnny Damon .319 vs. Matt Holliday .337 = Winner NL
5. Milton Bradley .316 vs. Xavier Nady .321 = Winner NL

Home Run Leaders:
1. Grady Sizemore 23 vs. Ryan Howard 28 = Winner NL
2. Carlos Quentin 22 vs. Adam Dunn 26 = Winner NL
3. Jermaine Dye 21 vs. Chase Utley 25 = Winner NL
4. Josh Hamilton 21 vs. Pat Burrell 23 = Winner NL
5. Alex Rodriguez 19 vs. Hanley Ramirez 23 = Winner NL

Here is what we just found:
1. NL's top 5 hitters all have higher averages then the AL's top 5 hitters
2. NL's top 5 home run hitters all have more home runs then the AL's top 5 home run hitters

Sure, one could say, "Well maybe the AL just has better pitchers." or "You are just looking at the top 5 guys." You can make an argument for pretty much anything in sports. If you look at the ERAs and Wins for pitchers, we are sure that it will be very close or the NL will be better. We are just comparing the first set of offensive numbers that come to mind.

All that we are trying to prove here is that a match-up of the AL and NL's top players is pretty much an even match-up. The Visionary is simply trying to point out that there is no reason to lay 45% juice on an All-Star game. The real value is taking the National League in this game if you just step back and look at this realistically.

The Visionary says to take the value play in the National League +125 to reverse the trend on Tuesday night.

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