The football season is officially wining now. And football won't be here in just over 2 weeks. There is nothing left to say about this other than...IT SUCKS. Furthermore, in my honest opinion, I feel that Rodger Goodell will spend this offseason finding ways to tarnish this game even more before the 2013-14 season. I honestly believe that he may just one day completely destroy the game that I grew up loving my entire life. The sad thing about this is that; you all know it, I know it, non-sports fans know it, the media knows it, but the media won't talk about it because their companies need NFL (who is their their puppet master). You honestly have to see children get slaughtered on the news for any of these NFL sportscasters on ESPN or FOX NFL Sunday to voice their real opinions of the NFL, Roger Goodell, and the officiating. Yep, he is ruining the game we all love. Let just hope he doesn't implement some absurd rule by next season.
Anyway, before I jump right in with my card of college hoops along with my AFC / NFC Championship Picks for Sunday, I feel that it's my duty as a true sports handicapper to give you all one very important piece of advice (or a reminder to some). If you are a sports bettor who considers themselves smart, you will read this. The reason I want to give you this reminder and/or piece of advice is because it is something that is relevant and important to more than 80-85% of the sports bettors out there.
Now, of course, there are some of you out there that very aware of this, and are careful when it comes to this. If this is the case with you, you will appreciate it because you are also the same type of person who knows that it never hurts to be reminded.
However, more importantly (and as I said), there are a large majority of you that need to hear this as it could do you some good to hear it. Regardless, it's some practical advice that can never hurt to be reminded of.
If you want to see what I am referring to scroll to the bottom after checking out today's picks.
AFC & NFC Conference Championship Picks For January 20, 2013
(As Always, Conference Championship Picks Are Rated On A 1 to 5 Unit Scale)
Free NFC Championship Picks
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3
Value: 5 Units
One of My Two Superbowl Future Bets From The Pre-Season
AFC Championship Picks
Pick: New England Patriots -7 -125
Value: 3 Units
Free College Basketball Picks For Sunsday, January 20, 2013
(The Visionary's NCAA Basketball Picks Are Rated On A 1 to 5 Unit Scale)
Free Sunday NCAA Basketball Picks
Pick: North Carolina State Wolfpack -10
Value: 3 Units
Pick: Drake Bulldogs +10
Value: 2 Units
Pick: Rider Broncs +4.5
Value: 2 Units
Yes, the season is winding down, and there are only three football games to go; three good match-ups mind you, but nevertheless, just three games to go. Yes, as I said, it flat out sucks (especially for the avid handicapper and sports bettor).
However, my main point (and advice to you) is this:
Just because there are only 3 games left this year, this DOES NOT mean that you have to unload, or risk your entire bankroll on one, or all three of the last three NFL games.
If you have a bankroll that you have built up during the entire college and NFL football season, the most undisciplined (and dangerous) thing you can do right now is unload a large portion (or all of it on just three games).
Even more important, if you are down this season and your bankroll has dwindled a bit (or a lot), it's important to know that you have to try to get everything you are down back in just three games. If this is the case, you have a 50/50 chance of potentially digging yourself into a hole you never thought was possible. (read on)
I cannot tell you how many times that I have seen GREAT handicappers (who can pick games with the best of them) ruin an outstanding season, I've seen dozens of rock solid cappers who added to their bankroll week after week, all season long in the NFL and college gridiron, but then watched them finish in the red by the end of the Superbowl....I am talking about big time, dime players, that spent all year building up to 40 or 50K of profit (prior to the Conference Championships), and then finished -10 or -20 units by Superbowl time. This was ALL because these guys laid almost their entire profits on the AFC & NFC Championship games, and then tried to recoup all those losses on the Superbowl (by betting big and throwing in props, parlays, exotics and more on one final game). They initially did this because they thought of their winnings from the entire season as free money. But, no money is FREE. They worked hard for that and just because they made it by football handicapping / betting does not make that less valuable to them and their families.
My handicapping bankroll is VERY valuable to me and I think of it as ammo. I don't load up all my ammo and pull the trigger on one single game (for the sole reason being I am going to miss football). I only use my ammo when I feel its a calculated decision, where the risk and worth the reward.
Don't get me wrong, I am not at all saying don't bet the games at all...That's not my point. By all means, bet the game. I am. In fact, I have a large, 5-unit play on San Francisco who I think it bar far the best team in the NFL. My point is, betting because a game is a big game (and one of the last games of the season) not a factor in itself that is worth more then 1/4 to 1 unit (at the most).
Your play values and wagering amounts should be calculated and based on your bankroll. My advice is to make bet on these big games as if it were a week 5 game (that has a little extra excitement). If you're a 1 to 5 unit player, don't bet your max bet or outside your limit just for the sole reason of the game being a big playoff game; or because it's one of the last games of the year. Vegas preys on this line of thinking.
Also, if you are a basketball bettor/handicapper (and don't like the final NFL games too much to put more than a smaller play on it), lay a small play or a small two-team teaser (or something of that nature) and just enjoy the final games of the year. They are big games and you will likely enjoy them. The season will be over soon and do you really want to end up disappointed after the game....all because you squandered your entire roll (or have to worry about paying your local book more than your can afford to give him). Trust me, if you're a football junkie like I am, you are going to miss football in the off-season regardless. So watch 'em and enjoy 'em regardless of the action you have on the games.
More importantly, if you're a hoops capper who enjoys playing some college hoops, the best thing you can do (either this afternoon or in the two weeks before the Superbowl) is spend a little time brushing up on your hoops knowledge. I have already done this over the past two weeks and feel I have finally gotten a nice grasp on the college hardwood. So, because of the time I spent the last two week brushing up on hoops, I am ready for a solid season of college basketball and March Madness picks when the NFL season ends. This makes my urges to load up on these final three games even more minimal.
Money Management alone is more than 50% of the battle in successful handicapping. I have seen the brightest and best handicappers become horrible sports bettors because they can't manage money. These are guys who play middles, have run books themselves...the type of guys who will test dozens of systems for the entire season (just to use them next year) and are smart enough to calculate odds on the fly. But these can be the same guys who bet one to five dimes a game, and then unload 20 dimes each today and 40 dimes on the Superbowl.
Money Management is something that every player should serious sit down and consider their money management strategies and ideas to make themselves more disciplines when it comes to investing. Think about same of the exact things that smart stock market and financial investors often tell you think about.
Some ideas on things to think about...
- How much do you have set aside for sports betting and handicapping.
- What is your unit scale? How much these units are (what percentage of your bankroll)?
- What your goals are and write them down in your notebook (be realistic)?
- If you have a target in mind, how long to get that target?
- What rules do I need to set for myself - such as where you are only allowed to log-in to your book once or twice per day maximum?
If anyone needs some advice in improving their money management, be sure to email me. I will be very happy to offer you some good advice and answer questions about discipline and money management.
I hope some of you will take this information and put it to use. If just 5-10 of you (out of the 10,000+ that will read it and the 7,000+ that need to take the advice) think twice about their massive wagers (of amounts that are over your headd), I feel this post was a huge success.
- "The Visionary"