Thursday, December 18, 2008

Thursday Night NFL Football & NBA Picks

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A very sloppy evening on Wednesday night as I only hit my big NBA play. The struggle continues in the professional hardwood. Tonight, I will be playing four-units on the total in the NFL matchup. I have been nailing my NFL totals lately and I like the total a lot more then the side for tonight. However, I so have a small play on the side, and if anyone is wondering, I got the line for the two-unit side play at Bodog Sportsbook. I also have a three-unit NBA play and that will be all for tonight.

I still haven't decided, but I may post all the bowl plays for the weekend on Friday night if I think I will have them all ready before the weekend. Stay tuned. I am really liking the this bowl schedule and the public perception on these games. I am very excited for the bowl games to take off.

Anyway, here are the three Thursday plays...Enjoy...

Visionary's Thursday NFL & NBA Picks:

Pick: Colts @ Jaguars Under 44.5 (NFL)
Value: 5 Unit Play

Pick: San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (NBA)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (NFL)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(Visionary's daily free sports picks are rated on a 1 to 5 unit scale)

Get ready for an exciting weekend football fans!!

-The Visionary



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6 comments:

Tim H. said...

Thanks for the tip on waiting until right before game time to bet on dogs as the favorites will usuallly get pushed up.

Got a couple extra points on LMU last night and it made me a winner instead of a loser!

Anonymous said...

Wow Bodog's +7 -115 is ridiculously stale

The Visionary said...

Tim,

The pleasure is all mine.

Winning is better then losing.

As for the public moving the lines, that is usually the way it goes. Unless you see a game that looks off and you think the public will move it the other way, for the most part the public usually drives up the favorites.

The same goes for totals. The public tends to push low numbers up. Under normal circumstances, wait to bet unders and get in on the overs early. A lot of times, if you can get in on favorites early that move by more then 2 or 3 points, you can find opportunities to middle your action.

Sometimes, you will see a line go up by 2 or 3 points. Then, right before kickoff it will drop a half of a point. This, many say is the sharp action jumping all over the inflated spread that got driven up by the public bettors.

I think tonight is a good example. The public will probably push this up to 7 or 7.5 at most places by kickoff. Bodog (great place for betting dogs) seems to be the only book that has 7 right now. This total may get up to 45 or 45.5 by kickoff as well.

Although, I am not 100% on this one. I see a lot of sports talk guys saying that Jags are a good play with the points at home. So, I am not sure I have a complete handle on the public perception for tonight's game.

Seven points is enough for me to make a small move on the Jags and I don't think tonight's total is getting into the 40's at all...

Best of luck and glad I could be of service.

-The Visionary

The Visionary said...

Anonymous,

It's not that the number is stale. It's just that Bodog has a tendency to try and force the public to bet more dogs at their books. They seem to get a lot of heavy favorite action as they are big 'recreational' player book...as opposed to Canbet or Pinnacle who draws a lot of 'sharp action' players.

BTW, I was able to get +7 -110 at Bodog. I lot of people don't know this about Bodog, but sometimes Bodog has different lines for different players. I have been logged-in with two different accounts at the same time, with two different computers, and have seen two different lines for the same game at Bodog. I really don't like that about them. There are a lot better books out there (such as BetUS & JustBet who offer Visionary readers a 100% match-play bonus). But, I use Bodog to sometimes take advantage of the inflated dog prices.

-The Visionary

Anonymous said...

5Dimes does the same thing. When you first sign up for a book you get juicy lines but once you show any knowledge at all they start dealing you the worse lines.

The Visionary said...

Anonymous,

I have never heard any reports of 5Dimes showing inconsistent lines. I am actually going to look into that now.

Right now, I really trust BetUS more then any other book on the web. Their new business model is constant with the old Bodog model. Their marketing people are very easy to work with and I was able to get a bigger bonus from them along with personal service for my readers. They have a great customer service reps. I have access to personal service for any member that I choose just by giving them the extension number of my service rep. The personal service also comes from one of the best reps. in the industry. Their payouts are also being processed quickly and efficiently. BetUS gets an A+ right now in this industry, no question.

Do not listen to corrupt sites (such as TheRX & SBR) who rate the books who pay them the most with the highest rating. These sites pick and choose horror stories to fit their rating system, forcing you to think bad about the books they don't want you playing at. I could find horror stoies for all of their top rated books. Also, what happened 5 years ago at a sportsbook that is under new management has no bearing on which book you should select now. This is a "what have you done for me lately" type industry. And, lately, Sportsbook.com has been bouncing payouts and not paying customers, and BetUS is meeting all their customer's needs.

-Visionary