Thursday, October 16, 2008

The Visionary's Thursday Night ALCS Game Five Play & College Football Picks!

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 75-53 (+93.65 Units / 59%)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 41-27 (+40.70 Units / 60%)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 39-34 (+1.30 Units / 53%)
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Hello Everyone:

I really enjoyed the night off and I will also admit that if I had played last night's NLCS game 5, I would have taken the over. So, the day off may have saved us two units. Thanks for the day off and to 'Stro' for his comments appreciating that I needed the day off (which I really did). Also, congrats to the Phillies and their fans. Philadelphia deserves a championship and it may just happen this year.

Anyway, I have a decent size card for Thursday night which should make things interesting. I am rather excited to watch this BYU/TCU game, not only because it's an intriguing match-up, but also because I think the oddsmakers got this one wrong. I also think the public perception of BYU is way off and they are low in my top 25. This also means a pretty decent size play on this one. So, Thursday's card is iced with a big play in tonight's college football action.

Oh yea, I thought I would mention this one more time for the NBA & NHL players that do not read the comments on a regular basis or just did not read the comments from Tuesday's post where I explained a little bit about my NHL & NBA handicapping styles. For those of you waiting for NBA picks, I do not play NBA preseason basketball as I do not think it's worth handicapping. I think the NBA preseason could be used to see how fresh some NBA players are that are facing earl injuries. And, for those of you waiting for NHL picks, I am not a regular daily player of NHL hockey. However, I will go through the NHL board and do some hockey handicapping every now and again. Regarding NHL picks, you can expect to see a few hockey plays per week (at the most), but not until the season is a few weeks deep and the quality power rating charts begin to fill up with data.

Ok then....How 'bout we get to Thursday's MLB and college football picks....

The Visionary's Thursday Free Sports Picks:

Pick: TCU Horned Frogs -1 (CFB)
Value: 4 Unit Play

Pick: Florida State @ N.C. State Over 48 (CFB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 +140 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

Pick: Tampa Bay @ Boston Over 9 (MLB)
Value: 1 Unit Play

(The Visionary's daily free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

The Visionary hopes that his readers are excited for a big weekend!

-The Visionary

8 comments:

Stro said...

Visionary,

Check the TCU line that you posted. I think they should be +1. BYU is the favorite, right? Or has the line changed that much since you posted?

- Stro

The Visionary said...

Hey Stro! How are you? Excited for tonight's action?

As for your question, TCU is now favored in this game. The line has moved a good 2.5 points from the overnight number. I do believe that the oddsmakers made a big mistake in the opening number. I also believe there is a lot of sharp action on TCU which moved the line as the general masses seem to be on BYU. I also predict a lot of late action tonight on the Frogs. I am expecting to see TCU -2 or -3 by kickoff. Either way, I love this one tonight.

Good luck!

-The Visionary

Stro said...

Ah, well that explains it.

Going to need some advice here. I did the worst thing you can do as a gambler and I didn't double-check my pick before confirming the bet. I think my eye just caught the -1.5 and since your pick was TCU -1 I just assumed I had the right team. Oh no. Let this be a lesson to all who read this post: Triple-check your ticket every time.

So right now I have BYU -1. Question is, do I just swallow the mistake and hope BYU wins or is the better play to make a second bet on TCU for 8-9 units and try to hedge my 4 unit BYU bet? What a dumb mistake. It's the first time I've ever been this careless and I'm not sure what the smartest way to handle it is. How say you?

The Visionary said...

Stro,

I will try to assist you as best I can, but the overall decision is for you to make. You took BYU -1 and the line is moving the other way. So, the opportunity to middle your action is not available. If the situation were reversed completely, you would have an advantage. But, it's not. So, you have three options like you said.

1. Cheer on BYU. Of course, I am not going to tell you to do this as I have already advised my readers to play TCU.

2. Bet the same amount on TCU -1 OR -1.5 and sacrifice your vig.

3. Double your action on TCU -1 OR -1.5.

However, if you are going to take options 2 or 3, you better do it now as you are hurting yourself more and more by waiting as the TCU line is going up. If you take TCU -1.5 you risk the chance of losing both bets if TCU wins by 1. So, if you want to take TCU, do it now and try to get -1. You can go to a book where buying points is an option and get the -1.

The decision is yours. Sorry and good luck my friend. Please let me know what you decide to do.

Stro said...

Visionary,

Thanks for your advice. The site I use still has TCU as a +1.5 underdog at -105. What I did was I put 5 units on TCU and bought a half-point to make my spread +2. That means that:

If BYU wins by 1: Push BYU bet and win TCU.

If BYU wins by 2: Win BYU bet and push TCU.

If BYU wins by 3 or more: Win BYU and lose TCU. Net is roughly -1.5 units.

Any TCU win: BYU bet loses (-4 units) but win TCU action (+4 units) and come out exactly even Stephen.

This seemed the best way to handle the situation. Its a shame that I will more than likely not pick up the 3.5 units that I would've had I just gotten the damn bet right in the first place but those are the breaks.

Thanks again and good luck tonight. I think it will be a hell of a game no matter who wins.

The Visionary said...

Stro,

I can't believe you are still able to get TCU at +2.5. If I were you I would put 3 or 4 more units on TCU +2.5 and actually play TCU. I really like TCU to handle BYU tonight. I really feel that TCU matches up well in this one. I also think the public is mislead as far as the actual talent that this BYU team has. There is a lot of hype with BYU.

-The Visionary

Stro said...

Just to be clear the line is +1.5 and then I bought a half-point to get TCU +2 but of course the payout drops to -120 for buying the half-point.

Will take your advice and put down a few more units on TCU. Obviously I will not fault you if it doesn't play out as, in the end, I make my own decisions. That said have been following your advice since early September and have made a profit with my online betting for the first time ever. A pretty big profit at that considering my meager bankroll. I really can't thank you enough for taking the time out of your day to give people free picks that really do hit. As this is just a hobby for me I have no intention of making big money on sports betting but hot damn if it doesn't feel good to be up a few hundred on the year.

Good luck tonight.

- Stro

Willmore said...

Very nice handicapping of the TCU game. Tough luck with the Sox, in fact, by the 3rd inning, I was cursing myself for not following my gut and betting on the Rays and the under yesterday. In the end, we get the over and were a few lucky breaks away from covering the -1 1/2.