Monday, October 27, 2008

Visionary's Monday Night Football Picks

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 77-56 (+92.65 Units / 58%)
2008-09 NCAA Football Picks Record: 51-43 (+14.80 Units / 54%)
2008-09 NFL Football Picks Record: 46-35 (+24.00 Units / 57%)
2008-09 NHL Hockey Picks Record: 4-2 (+2.00 Units / 67%)
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Hello Everyone...

I'm going to keep this short today as I don't have a lot of time to post. We had a very successful weekend where we picked up 21 units of profit since Friday. I really like the Monday night matchup and this is another play that most likely would have been on my Sunday card. I am also making a small play on the World Series Game 5. So, here we go for Monday...

The Visionary's Monday Night Free Picks

Pick: Tennessee Titans -4 (NFL)
Value: 3 Unit Play

Pick: Tampa Bay Devil Rays +1.5 -135 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(Visionary's daily free sports picks are rated on a 1 to 5 unit scale)

Hope everyone made some money this weekend...

Good Luck!

-The Visionary

11 comments:

Willmore said...

The Titans play seems like the right one, but I'm staying away from tonight's matchup. Don't know why, just a gut thing. Good luck to you though, and I will be playing Rays pick, as I think they are due. In fact, I'm going with the money line on this one.

The Visionary said...

Willmore,

That's too bad. You should have gotten on board for the Monday Nighter. The Visionary is on fire! I think we were on schedule for a +5 unit day if it wasn't for the suspension. This shouldn't happen for a World Series game.

-The Vis

Willmore said...

I'm comfortable with my decision. If Peyton doesn't throw that late interception, who knows what would have happened.

The Visionary said...

DING DING DING And the award for most ridiculous comment of the season goes to.......

Willmore!!....Come on down!

Boy, I am sure glad Peyton threw that interception then. LOL.

By the way, Turnovers play a HUGE factor in how I approach handicapping the NFL, and Peyton's been throwing a lot of interceptions lately.

In fact, Peyton threw two interceptions in that game. I wonder how the game could have played out if he didn't throw both of them.

Better yet, I wonder how the game could have played out if he had thrown three interceptions.

I wonder how my entire weekend could have went if the other team didn't turn the ball over in all the games I played.

Comon man..seriously...

Willmore said...

You know what I mean. That game wasn't comfortable to watch if you had Tennessee at any point before Peyton threw that interception. Before that, it was a tossup at best.

But Peyton did, so that was a good bet. Yet you can't tell me that you can predict turnovers in a game. That's one of 2 things that are unpredictable in football games - turnovers and referees.

Sure, there are teams and players that are more prone to turnovers, there are teams and players that are more skilled at getting turnovers, but even the best defensive team can come out of a game without a turnover.

Peyton made a bad decision and so the titans win and cover. But you're telling me that before that interception you were still supremely positive that the Titans will cover the -4?

Willmore said...

I'll give you an easy example.

On Sunday you picked the 49ers. You saw that Seneca was at QB, that the Hawks had a below average line, the 49ers were at home. Thus, Seneca is bound to throw a couple picks, or be pressured into a sack and fumble. That didn't happen.

It was possible, it could have happened, but you can't say with a betting degree of certainty that a team is going to have an advantage in turnovers, even if on paper it looks like they will, because turnovers by their nature are a combination of skill and luck, with luck playing a bigger part.

The Visionary said...

Yet you can't tell me that you can predict turnovers in a game.

What are you talking about? You can predict turnovers by looking at the teams previous games to see how prone to turnover they are. The teams that turn the ball over a lot, especially recently, usually continue to to. Just like teams that usually have more success on the ground, are the teams that will probably run the ball more.

Go and handicap your games just by going by how many turnovers the teams average per game and I guarantee you'll have more success then if you use many other stat categories. Using numbers to try and determine future results is what handicapping is. By your logic, how could you predict what anyone is going to do? I am sorry, but this is what I am talking about when I say that people think they are handicappers when they are not.

You know what I mean. That game wasn't comfortable to watch if you had Tennessee at any point before Peyton threw that interception. Before that, it was a tossup at best.

No, I really don't know what you mean. Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't the Titans covering before Peyton threw that last interception. It's very easy to sit on the sidelines and always be right...

Sure the game wasn't in the bag until the last interception. What's your point? Tulsa wasn't in the bag until their last touchdown, and you didn't come on here and say, "If they didn't score last TD, we would have lost". Every game that you win isn't going to be any easy winner. If every game that you win is a wire2wire easy win, then you are the greatest handicapper on the planet and you should just bet sports for a living.

The fact remains that I won the game and I handicapped the game right. You just sound like a hater when you say crap like this and it's rather annoying. Your first posts was exactly like this. The only time you feel like congratulating me for a victory is when you agree with the play and you stamp it with your approval. I honestly don't even understand your point. I think you are trying to justify that you made the right decision laying off when the play won and you could have made money by playing it. There were plenty of other games that you played with me and weren't sealed until half way through the 4th quarter and you said nice call and gave me credit. You didn't say "I should have layed off that one because it wasn't a blowout". Every win isn't going to be an easy winner.

Boo Cocky said...

Actually, the way to cap using turnovers (fumbles for the most part) is bet on teams who have had bad fumble luck. These are teams that are recovering fumbles are a lower rate than average, and so are suffering in their games because of it. But thanks to regression they should see their luck return to average and win a couple more games.

The Visionary said...

Boo,

This can work in some ways and is another way to approach any stat category. I use strategies like this in baseball more then the NFL. I feel the hot/cold approach is a better way to tackle on the NFL.

But again, if you are taking a team that fumbles the ball a lot and is going up against a defense that forces a lot of fumbles, you wouldn't feel comfortable playing them, especially when that team has been fumbling a lot more as of late. The same goes for INT's. Again, just like any other statistical category.

The Visionary said...

But the fact the remains that fumbles and interceptions are a very useful statistical resource for handicapping football games. And, it's not because the teams that lead the league in defensive interceptions are more lucky then all the other teams, or the teams that throw the most interceptions are less lucky then all the other teams. That's not how it works.

By the way, I hope some people cashed in the Titans with me. What a great weekend...Cashing 26 units of profit.

Stro said...

I cashed in Vis. Hell of a roll you are on. I'm a big fan of whatever you do to make your picks. As I have said in several previous posts, I tried doing this online betting thang on my own last year and just couldn't consistantly win. Was down at the start of this year too which was just killing me because I love football and have been watching for years. I figured I had to know something about what teams were good and who should beat who and yet I would pick more losers than winners almost every week. Even listening to the "experts" on ESPN or HBO didn't help as they were wrong as often as I was (which makes me crazy btw but that's a jag I will save for another time). It wasn't until I found this blog that I actually started winning. Not only did I get back to even with your picks I doubled my buy-in with over half a season of ball yet to play. I will say that winning is a lot more fun than losing week in and week out. Keep on keepin' on.