Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Tuesday Night ALCS Game Four Play

2008 MLB Baseball Picks Record: 75-52 (+95.65 Units / 59%)
2008 NFL Football Picks Record: 41-27 (+40.70 Units / 60%)
2008 NCAA Football Picks Record: 39-34 (+1.30 Units / 53%)
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Another profitable 2-1 (+2.8 unit) Monday evening. Again, we were able counter a lackluster Saturday college football card by banking some nice profits in the NFL, giving us another slightly profitable weekend. However, I am getting a little tired of this roller coaster ride in the college football. I am going to work even harder this week on the weekend's NCAA football picks. But again, we are still quietly making money and progressively building a bankroll, where most sports bettors out there are watching their money disappear week after week.

One Month Ago, we were at 110.4 units;
One week ago, we were at 131.05 units;
And, right now, we are at 137.65 overall.

137.65 is just under 12.5 units from the 150 unit goal that we set at the beginning of October. Despite the standstill in my college football bankroll, I am doing something right. Just thought I would put this into perspective for the readers who think they can find a better handicapper somewhere else (or think they are better themselves).

Anyway, the board is very small today. I am moving only 2 units on tonight's ALCS Game 4.

The Visionary's Tuesday Night ALCS Play:

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 +140 (MLB)
Value: 2 Unit Play

(The Visionary's daily free sports picks are rated on a 1-5 unit scale)

See you tomorrow!

-The Visionary

7 comments:

Willmore said...

Hey, visionary, are you going to be doing NHL and NBA picks as well?

The Visionary said...

Willmore,

I will do some NHL handicapping, but not on a daily basis. My NHL handicapping approach is aimed more toward utilizing statistical power rating systems, such as Jeff Sagarin's NHL ratings and a few others. I like to break down basic power rating statistics as I find this to be the most effect approach to handicapping hockey. I take this approach with sports that I do not follow closely, but also provides a lot of data to work with.

As for the NBA, I will be playing and posting a few NBA plays per week, but only during the regular season. My NBA approach is aimed more toward developing and testing basic systems and then playing the averages of the systems, mostly against the public action. I have had many profitable NBA seasons. Surprisingly, I find the NBA a bit easier to handicap then other sports, especially college sports. With the NBA, there are a lot of games and teams play each other a few times a year. This, like the NHL, provides a lot of data to develop new systems with.

-The Visionary

Anonymous said...

Visionary, enjoying your blog and picks. Appreciated you posting on Friday night, as one can get -105, as opposed to -110 prior to midnight. While we are looking ahead, will you do college hoops? Do you prefer handicapping college or pro hoops? I find the college game more interesting than NBA, but which do you prefer to handicap?
NYGiantFan

Anonymous said...

lol tough loss tonight

The Visionary said...

It sure was. Only a small 2-unit play, but Wakefield and the Sox were just plain horrible again. Totally unexpected. The Sox are not the type of team at all that gives up double digit runs in back 2 back games. The Rays continue to baffle me and all of baseball. Some true underdog stories just defy all logic. I give them lots of credit.

-The Visionary

The Visionary said...

NYGiantFan,

How are you? I am glad to see you are enjoying the picks and the blog. I have bigger plans for this blog, which includes contests, handicapping tools, guest handicapping writers, and more...

As for your question regarding college basketball handicapping, the answer is yes, I will be doing college basketball this year and posting plays throughout the season. I have recently had a lot more success in handicapping the NBA over college. I am not saying that I haven't had many winning seasons in college hoops. But, like in football, there is a lot more games and a broader schedule to analyze in the college game which makes in harder to narrow the games. When handicapping college basketball, I tend to lean on a particular conference. In college hoops, unlike football, each conference team will play each other sometimes more then once, giving you previous matchups and more data to use in breaking down the matchups.

As far as the entertainment value and as a sports fan, like yourself, I prefer the college game to the NBA. College hoops has always been one of the most entertaining sports to watch in my opinion and I thoroughly enjoy March Madness and the major conference tournaments. I really enjoy watching college basketball, which is another reason I have had some success in handicapping NCAA hoops.

I hope this answers your question. I appreciate your readership. Keep playing smart and always play the winners.

-The Visionary

The Visionary said...

Willmore,

I am not sure that I completely clarified my handicapping styles for hoops and hockey. Basically, with everything I told you about how a approach the NBA and NHL, I also usually wait a few games into the regular season before moving on anything so that I can get a feel for the teams. I do not think the preseason tells you anything about the NBA besides the fact that most teams and players don't play defense (which we all already know).

And, like I said before, when handicapping the NHL, I use a lot of power ratings. This means that it will take 2 or 3 short weeks before the power ratings contain enough data to get an accurate gage.

-The Visionary