With the playoff races getting closer to the finish, you see more and more ridiculous lines where teams are laying massive chalk on the road. Most of these teams normally wouldn't be laying that much wood on the road if they weren't in the playoff race. There is no way Arizona would be a -190 favorite over San Diego in July. Considering the fact that the sports betting public never regularly bets on baseball underdogs. Joe Public is attracted to baseball favorites like flies are to shit (I know, I'm a class act). So, Mr. 'I never bet on baseball' ends up losing a huge wad right before football even kicks off. This way they are already chasing before the college football regular season even starts. This is what sportsbooks prey on. They want all their players to be chasing...ALL THE TIME. Forumula: Impatient bettors + inflated lines = disaster.
SO, BE CAREFUL!! If you normally don't play the bases and are going to bet some baseball before the football season, don't bet big and look for value underdogs. If you are a regular baseball player and know how to handicap baseball, then you can already see these inflated lines starting to appear across the board. Don't get suckered into these traps. Look for some non-playoff teams who are playing at home and getting an inflated price because they are playing against a team that is barely in the playoff hunt. Bet a few bucks on a few of these, where '1 for 2'...'2 for 4'...and sometimes even '1 of 4' will turn a profit. Don't do something foolish like lay 2 to 1 on a marginally decent team (like the the Diamondbacks) on the road. Even if the play wins, there is no value there and it's the type of play that can put you in a hole. Look for value in every baseball wager. Look for the plays where the public inflates the line. Before you bet a game (especially a baseball game) ask yourself questions like;
- Does this seem like a sucker bet?
- Am I risking too much on the wager for not enough reward?
- Does this seem like a bet that the average bookie would love to take?
If the answer is 'yes' to any of these questions, then you should think twice about making that wager. Not only is this the right way to bet baseball, but it will get you into that winning/grinding/capping mindset heading into football season. If it doesn't feel like you a grinding out profits, then you are not handicapping. It should feel like work. Nothing that makes money is easy, even handicapping. The Visionary reminds you to always play smart and think against the grain when doing your baseball betting, and even your football betting this season. Tuesday's Major League Baseball picks will be posted soon.